PERSONAL READING, ON YOUR TERMSONLINE WORKSPACE
← Back to the reading room
Thrive by Sean Kernan · 2026-10-13

Russia says it isn't the plague. History says be skeptical.

A lab accident in Siberia, a five-day decline, and a government with a history of hiding the truth

Read original ↗
This is a paywall preview. Recommendations cover only the available preview. Available public text only

Russia says it isn't the plague. History says be skeptical.

A lab accident in Siberia, a five-day decline, and a government with a history of hiding the truth

Sean Kernan

Oct 13, 2026

∙

Paid

8

2

Share

Upgrade to paid to play voiceover

Much of the world is still on edge due to the last pandemic. Mere rumors of another disease send many people into a full panic.

Earlier this month, there were

reports of a woman who died in Siberia

after contracting the plague. Some social media reports also suggested she may have seeded the disease, becoming patient zero).

This hysteria then elevated after

Axios reported

that the State Department was monitoring a “suspected plague outbreak”. Just five days ago, reports emerged of a

suspected second death

from the plague.

And you might be wondering, “Wasn’t the plague a medieval disease? How is it still prevalent?”

Indeed, there have been several major plague outbreaks, some of which wiped out huge swathes of the population. What many people don’t realize is that many variants of these diseases are still around — often in economically depressed areas. The only notable disease we’ve eradicated is smallpox.

This one is new — potentially.

What we know from Russian experts

Thus far, Russia’s reputation for transparency on such matters is poor, especially around biosecurity. So the evidence that these people died from the plague or something more sinister isn’t really substantial.

The 27-year-old woman, Daria Shipilova, contracted the disease while working at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute of Siberia.

Authorities deny this is the plague, saying she died of pneumonia (of note, when the plague infects the lungs, it’s called pneumonic plague).

Immediately following the incident, the hospital was put on lockdown. Per local reports, as many as 200 people may have been in contact with the infection and were put under medical supervision.

The US actually has an average of

seven cases of plague per year

. However, this strain typically originates from flea bites or working with infected animals. It is the bubonic form of the plague which typically results in swollen lymph nodes.

A smear of bubonic plague, showing presence of yersinia pestis bacteria that causes plague.

Pneumonic plague, which infects the lungs, was the strain suspected here. What’s troubling is that this type of plague is the only type that can transfer between humans. However, it is still difficult for this transfer to happen.

Which is what makes Russia’s response of locking down the hospital and 200 people, somewhat concerning, given what would usually be required.

How she actually got sick

Continue reading this post for free, courtesy of Sean Kernan.

Claim my free post

Or purchase a paid subscription.

Previous

Next

What did you think?

Your reaction is separate from the prediction. It won’t change your rule.

Your actual reaction